Synthesis of Earthquake and Landslide Risk to Inform Emergency Preparedness and Planning in Nepal. [SARH Project (the Evidence Project)]

Nepal faces a cascade of hazards triggered both by infrequent, damaging earthquakes and by the annual monsoon. Scientific understanding of these hazard chains and the risks they pose has grown substantially over the past 10–15 years, alongside improved understanding of exposure, social vulnerability, local and Indigenous knowledge, and disaster risk governance.

The overall aim of this project is to maximise the impact of knowledge and findings generated from the GCRF-funded Sajag-Nepal project (2021-2025) as well as other UKRI- and FCDO-funded research projects. To achieve this aim, the project will develop tools and materials to strengthen earthquake and monsoon preparedness planning by a wide range of specific beneficiaries: the Government of Nepal via the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) and municipal governments; the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (RCO); the humanitarian clusters that make up the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT); and the national and international NGOs that together comprise the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) Platform, administered by the Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration (MoFAGA) and the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC).

The project will generate a set of outputs (O1-O7), drawing upon the research team’s continuous engagement with these beneficiaries since 2010 and framed around specific questions and knowledge gaps that have arisen during the production of that body of collaborative research. Here, we outline the stages involved in the project, our plan for their completion, and the type and anticipated form of these outputs. We note, however, that specific details of each output are yet to be determined, because they depend on consultation with the beneficiaries in Stage 1.

This project, led by Durham University with the University of Northumbria and NSET, will synthesise knowledge and findings from the GCRF-funded Sajag-Nepal project (2021–2025) and other UKRI- and FCDO-funded research into practical tools and materials that strengthen earthquake and monsoon preparedness planning in Nepal. The work builds on the research team’s continuous engagement with Nepali government and humanitarian partners since 2010 and is co-led in Nepal by the National Society for Earthquake Techniology – Nepal (NSET).

OBJECTIVES

• Synthesise research on slope-specific monitoring and past landslide occurrence into decision-focused briefing notes for municipal governments to support local monsoon planning.

• Bring together monsoon timelines, a landslide impact forecasting tool, and a national multi-hazard earthquake scenario ensemble to inform contingency planning by NDRRMA and the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office / Humanitarian Country Team.

• Capture lessons from the ten years since the Gorkha earthquake to inform ongoing reconstruction and recovery planning.

• Summarise proven hillslope monitoring approaches for the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) Platform, to support scale-up of existing research beyond the four case-study municipalities.

KEY ACTIVITIES

• Stage 1 – Consultation (Weeks 1–7): Interviews with senior technical staff at eight institutions – NDRRMA, the Resident Coordinator’s Office, MoFAGA, IFRC, and the four case-study municipalities aiming to identify updated planning priorities and knowledge gaps; workplan refined and shared with BEK (Deliverable 1).

• Stage 2 – Design (Weeks 7–14): Project co-lead (GKB) travels to the UK to work with the team on drafting seven knowledge outputs (O1–O7), drawing on existing national-scale landslide, earthquake-scenario, forecasting, monitoring, and ethnographic datasets; priority datasets prepared for the Government of Nepal’s Bipad Portal; national-level drafts shared with BEK (Deliverable 2).

• Stage 3 – Delivery and Iteration (Weeks 14–24+): Draft outputs shared, discussed, and refined with beneficiaries ahead of the 2026 monsoon, timed around elections and each partner’s planning cycle (Deliverable 3); final synthesis report and outputs shared at end of June (Deliverable 4); hybrid dissemination event with BEK, development partners, and government representatives in July (dates revised in conslultation with BEK, Deliverable 5), alongside outreach to the concerned local authorities in Nepal and wider FCDO.

KEY PARTNERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

• Federal government level: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration (MoFAGA, originlly planned may be revised into the local level governments).

• UN and humanitarian actors: UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (RCO) and the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) clusters.

• Civil society: such as, International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) and the Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) Platform, including national and international NGOs; Municipal Association of Nepal for scale-up.

• Local government: the four case-study municipalities – Annapurna, Bhimeshwor, Bhote Koshi, and Temal.

• Donor/oversight: British Embassy Kathmandu (BEK) and FCDO.

• Research consortium: Durham University, University of Northumbria at Newcastle, and NSET (co-leads Dr. Gopi Krishna Basyal, Prof. Dr. Amod Mani Dixit, and Dr. Surya Shrestha in Nepal; Prof Alexander Densmore, Prof Nick Rosser, and Dr Katie Oven in the UK).